Welcome back, class. I started writing this lesson with the intention of helping you "uncover" pocket cards. In essence, how to read a player and their actions to identify their cards. But, as I was writing, I realized I needed to cover some ground on two specific actions, betting and raising. So, Lesson three is all about betting and raising properly. This may seem like another basic, but I guarantee that most of you will find some very good information here.
If you find yourself mystified as to how you lose money, or can't seem to make more money, at the poker tables, chances are your betting and the strategy behind it is letting you down. So many players make inadequate bets, overly risky bets, or can't properly calculate a bet or call for the best return. Hopefully I will show you some of the good reasons why you were getting called, or mistakenly folding, the biggest ways players lose those cheques.
We will start by looking at the things that should impact your decision on placing or calling a bet.
The Cards -Obviously. Better cards, Better bets
Position -Later gets more information, early has to guess
Players -Likely to call? Raise? Fold? Know their style
Stack -Are you Dominant? Or likely to get pushed hard?
Timing -In a tourney, close to the money? This affects other players
Now that you have decided whether or not to make that bet, raise, or call, it is time toformulate the bet properly. For that we have to bring in the mysterious Pot odds. This is how any decent player should base their betting formula. I call it mysterious because allot of players either don't know about them or don't know exactly what they are. Pot odds are, simply put, your odds of winning the hand in relation to the return on your bet.
You can relate it by percentages (33%) or fractions (1in 3, 3 to 1). A hand that has a 25% chance (1 in 4), can call 25% of the pot (4 to 1). To help understand this I will use two players in a hand that has a current pot of $200. Usually players associate this with underdogs calling, as in; a hand with a 25% chance of hitting/winning can call a $100 bet, now that the total pot will be $400. (One in four chance of hitting/winning gets 4 to 1 return on the bet). This can be associated with your bet as the favorite as well; a hand with a 75% chance of winning should place a bet of at least $200. The 25% hand must call $200 to get a $600 pot (3 to 1 return on a one in four chance).
When you consider pot odds, you have to consider all of the possible actions of all of the possible players. To help understand this I will use four players in the same $200 pot situation.
As the favorite, you are 66% to win now. That means each underdog averages 11%, but the best could be 34%. So your bet has to give less than a 3 to 1 return on all possible callers. Your bet should be $300, making the possible callers pot $800 and his/her return less than 3 to 1.
In this same situation, if one of the other players is loose and makes the call, your true opposition is now calling $300 for an $1100 pot, giving him/her better than 3 to 1 return on their call. If you feel like you may get 2 callers you cannot overcome the pot-odds, as the 2[suP]nd[/suP] caller will keep the pot at 3 to 1 return. You now have to decide if there is a bet big enough to eliminate either or both of the other players.
As a 66% favorite, I would not push myself all-in, but if possible I would put one of my opponents all-in. If I am short stacked, I would opt for a bet that is at least pushing the 3 to 1 return odds, and at most half of my remaining stack leaving me options for re-raisers or the next bet.
Now that I have unveiled some of the mystery behind pot odds, here are some common rules of thumb you can use.
Later positions can play the pot odds more easily pre-flop due to the information they can gather. They know how many players are likely to be involved and estimate the possible pot much easier than earlier positions. Post-flop all positions should play the pot-odds.
Pot odds are best used when only two or three players will be involved in a pot. If 4 or more players are likely to get involved in a pot, you cannot overcome pot-odds; so base your bet on what will likely eliminate players. Likewise, with 4 or more players in a pot, even a 10% hand is likely getting pot odds worthy of a call.
Any bet that is less than the value of the pot (or likely pot) is not playing the odds. This can be interpreted as either a weak hand or a trapping hand, any follow up action should evaluated and respond appropriately. Not raising to the pot odds with a favorite is only allowing other players to essentially limp"� into the pot. Calling with pot odds in your favor is still the play to make when you suspect"� a trap, only fold if you are definite that it is a trap.
Moving all-in should be reserved for heads-up action, 90% or better favorites, or when your stack covers the opponents and you have a 75% or better favorite. Remember, I'm talking about the proper plays here, not bluffs.
Pot odds are no excuse for playing rag hands. Pot-odds are about betting and your hand, not your hand alone.
Playing to the river is only asking to be beat on the river. Any time you can finish the hand with a bet, you should. Remember that Aggression is the key trait of any successful poker player. My only exception to this rule is when you hold the stone cold nuts, which is not as often as you think.
You will have to learn some things on your own here, such as starting hand odds and draw odds. I know, homework sucks, but I can't give you everything. There are plenty of websites out there that can give you that information, and I will post a chart that I use as soon as I can transfer in a sensible copy. I also use the same basic outs calculation as Jayc, post-flop outs x 4 = % of hitting, post turn outs x 2 = % of hitting, notice that I didn't say winning.
As I stated at the beginning of this lesson, this should be the basis of your betting strategies. Just as you would do with your playing style, you will want to change things up from time to time, don't become predictable. Never bet the exact same way each time, vary up the amounts, but utilize a strong base for forming your bets. And remember, odds are based on empirical data, at any single point in time the odds can be beaten.
Lesson Four should arrive soon, as it is already half written. We will discuss how to "uncover" your opponents cards then.
Extra info Here is a little more to help you see some post-flop strategy. Once again we are not talking about bluffs, just common, sensible play.
These are some common post-flop betting strategies, not necessarily by values, but by actions that give the best possible returns (true bad beats not included).
A value bet is small enough for any hand to call (usually the minimum), a fishing bet has enough value to push off draws yet remains foldable to a possible nut hand (usually about pot sized), pot-odds bets are meant to push off made hands that are drawing to catch or beat the top hand (usually twice the pot or larger). The check-raise is commonly used in place of a pot odds bet, especially with another aggressive better on the table (usually intended to stop the hand dead, or catch a weak hand protector/bluffer).
Straight/Royal Flush Flops
Pocketed -Checks, value bets and raises, generate what the table will give Top End -Checks, value bets and raises, generate what the table will give Low End -Bets pot odds for lower draws, evaluates raises chance at top end Singled (Draw) -Checks, calls to pot odds, See Straight and Flush
Quad Flops
Pocketed -Checks, value bets and raises, generate what the table will give Singled -Checks, value bets and raises, generate what the table will give Draw -Go down to Trips
Full House Flops
Pocket Hi -Checks, value bets and raises, generate what the table will give Mate Hi -Checks, value bets and raises, generate what the table will give Pocket Lo -Check, value bet, evaluates raise for quads, other pockets or draw Mate Lo -Bets to pot odds to push off draws to Hi, evaluates raise for Hi Draw -Go down to Trips and Two Pair
Flush Flops
Nut -Checks, value bets and raises, generate what the table will give Made -Bets to pot odds to push off draws to nut/hi, evaluates raise for nut/hi
Flush Draw
Nut -Checks or fishes a bet to see where hand stands Pocketed -Checks or fishes a bet to see where hand stands Singled -Checks/calls to value of rank
Straight Flops
Top -Checks, value bets and raises, generate what the table will give Fill -Bets to pot odds to push top or higher draws off Bottom -Fishes a bet to see where hand stands and push off draws
Straight Draw
Open Ended -Checks/calls to pot odds, possibly fishes a bet Gut Shot -Checks, calls if paired, evaluates otherwise
Trip/Set Flops
Pocketed -Value bets, evaluates raise/call for pot odds future actions Top single -Bets pot odds to kicker value, evaluates re-raise for hand type Low Single -Bets to push off all other hands, evaluates call/raise for hand type
Two Pair Flops
Top Pair -Fishes a bet to evaluate raise/call for pot odds future actions Pocketed -Fishes a bet to see where hand stands and push off draws/lower Lower Two -Bets to push off all other hands, evaluates call/raise for hand type
Top Pair Flops
Pocketed -Bets or check-raises to catch top pair and seek info on opposition Plus Draw -Fishes a bet to see where hand stands and push off draws Good Kicker -Fishes a bet to see where hand stands and push off draws
Pair Flops
Plus Draw -Checks/calls to pot odds or evaluates Good Kicker -Checks/calls to pot odds or evaluates Weak -Checks/calls small bets
Notice that I have again used top-down evaluation strategy. This will help keep you aware of the best possible hands instead of jumping in after misreading a low hand.